A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
